Peak Child

A guy from Harvard told me that this year more babies will be born in the world than in any other year. It has something to do with an S curve.

After this year, because the population bell curves towards the elderly and the number of children per couple declines, the whole process slows.

He said that over the next 40 years if we can figure out how to feed the unwashed masses using less land, less water and less energy then we have done it – made it – our new fangled techniques will never again be so tested and in fact we will have abundance.

I didn’t understand why this was so, except to say as I have outlined it above. The guy next to me drew it all out on the back of a napkin afterwards when I asked him to explain. But I still didn’t really get it, which means neither did he because I have found when I am left not understanding something it is usually deficiency in explanation (!).

What I did understand from the napkin is that the hypothesises includes a massive population decrease down to a point at which is has to bounce. And if we don’t bounce game over. Lawrence (napkin guy) drew all kinds of squiggles to make this point.

He said most things in life come in s-curves. This sounded very profound.



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